1 – Abbas K. A. (2003) User Charging for Roads in Egypt: A Case Study of Cairo-Alexandria Toll Road. In Proceedings of European Transport Conference, Seminar On Financing Infrastructure: Risk Assessment in Road Funding. Strasbourg, France.
Abstract:
This research starts by reviewing the current situation of toll roads in Egypt. The core of the research is to develop a simulation model that can be used to compute toll rates that are equivalent to the benefits enjoyed by road users. A case study of the first and most vital toll road in Egypt, namely Cairo Alexandria desert road, is considered. In this context, a review of traffic patterns on the road is presented. Several methodological steps are then followed as part of the framework for simulating the effects induced by changes in toll rates on travel demand as well as on toll revenues. First, vehicle operation costs, time passenger costs, as well as vehicle running time costs are reviewed from previous studies and updated. This is culminated into the formulation of generalized cost functions for four types of vehicles on both alternative roads along the Cairo-Alexandria corridor, namely the Cairo-Alexandria desert tolled road as well as the Cairo Alexandria agriculture road. The expected difference in the generalized costs is considered as a benefit for road users using the Cairo-Alexandria desert road. These are compared with current charged tolls and the discrepancy of charging very low toll rates is identified. The discrepancy represents the forgone income by the road agency. In order to simulate the effect of toll rate changes on traffic demand as well as on generated toll revenue, four binary logit route assignment models are calibrated for each type of vehicles constituting the traffic stream. In the effort to develop such models, data is compiled to estimate Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) by type of vehicle on these roads as well as to establish appropriate traffic growth rates. The logit models are used to obtain the expected demand using each road in light of changes in toll rates. Four graphs showing the demand pattern as a function of toll rate changes are produced for the four types of vehicles, on the two alternative roads. Finally four bell shaped curves describing the toll revenue changes with respect to toll rate changes are produced for each of the four types of vehicles. These curves can assist decision makers to determine an optimum or a sub-optimum toll rate that generates maximum revenue from road users or that induces a certain demand split between the two roads serving the Cairo-Alexandria corridor.
2 – Abbas K. A., Fattah N. A. & Reda H. R. (2003) Developing Passenger Demand Models for International Aviation from/to Egypt: A Case Study of Cairo Airport and Egyptair. In Proceedings of Air Transport Research Society, pp. 1-14. Toulouse, France.
Abstract:
This research is concerned with developing passenger demand models for international aviation from/to Egypt. In this context, aviation sector in Egypt is represented by the biggest and main airport namely Cairo airport as well as by the main Egyptian international air carrier namely Egyptair. The developed models utilise two variables to represent aviation demand, namely total number of international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport as well as total number of passengers using Egyptair international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport. Such demand variables were related, using different functional forms, to several explanatory variables including population, GDP and number of foreign tourists. Finally, two models were selected based on their logical acceptability, best fit and statistical significance. To demonstrate usefulness of developed models, these were used to forecast future demand patterns.
3 – Abbas K. A. (2004) Conceptual and Regression Models for Passenger Demand Prediction: A Case Study of Cairo Airport and Egyptair. Invited Paper to Aerlines Magazine. E-Zine edition – Issue 26, pp. 1-4. University of Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Abstract:
The main aim of this research is to develop demand models for passenger aviation from/to Cairo airport. The paper starts by forming a conceptualisation of main factors affecting passenger demand for international air transport from/to Egypt. In addition, a conceptualisation is drawn portraying factors influencing passenger selection of Egyptair, as a potential international carrier. Following this, historical data concerning aviation demand variables as well as other explanatory variables thought to affect this demand is collected and compiled from several sources. Demand variables are historically plotted to determine the most proper and representative ones. A correlation matrix is then computed using Pearson coefficient to show extent of relation between demand variables and selected explanatory variables. Based on these analyses, it is decided to develop single and multiple variable models, using different functional forms, relating air passenger demand to population, GDP and number of foreign tourists. All calibrated models are subjected to logical and statistical tests. Finally, two models were selected based on their logical acceptability, best fit and statistical significance. The paper concludes with a demonstration of usefulness of selected models in terms of ability to predict future passenger demand levels.
4 – Abbas K. A. (2004) Developing a Generic Algorithm For Assessing Financial Feasibility of Build-Operate-Transfer Road Projects. In Proceedings of 10th World Conference on Transport Research WCTR2004, Session E1: Assessment and Appraisal Methods with Respect to Transport Infrastructure Projects and Transport Activities. Istanbul, Turkey.
5 – Abbas K. A. (2000) Towards Bankable Build-Operate-Transfer Road Projects: A System Approach for Assessing Financial Feasibility. In Al-Azhar University Engineering Journal: Special Issue of Proceedings of Al-Azhar Engineering Sixth International Conference, Cairo, Egypt, pp. 645-684
Abstract:
This paper is concerned with developing a detailed generic algorithm to assist in conducting a comprehensive and structured financial feasibility assessment of private investment in road projects. The developed algorithm constitutes eight stages, namely defining the objectives of the project, traffic analysis, conducting Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), estimation of potential costs, forecasting of project revenues, estimation of key financial criteria and comparing these with project financial objectives so as to determine project viability. Finally, the eighth stage is concerned with minimising uncertainties and risk through a three level procedure of conducing scenario analysis, sensitivity tests and risk analysis. Several conclusions are deduced, the most important of which is the importance to forecast and analyse the development of traffic flows over the life of a BOT road project. This forecast should particularly run over the time period considered for evaluating the proposed BOT scheme. The paper revealed the importance of using disaggregate traffic demand forecasting models for BOT road projects. Such quality traffic models are meant to forecast demand for different types of vehicles throughout the operation period rather than at peak periods. This is crucial for the rigor required in the forecasting of revenue, which is detrimental for establishing the project viability. The paper identified a number of parameters as critical to the financial success of a BOT road project. These include: length of the concession period, toll categories and rates, traffic growth rates, discount rate, etc.
