1 – Abbas K. A. (2004) Traffic Safety Assessment and Development of Predictive Models for Accidents on Rural Roads in Egypt. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 36(2), pp. 149-163. Pergamon Press, UK.
Abstract:
This paper starts by presenting a conceptualization of indicators, criteria and accidents’ causes that can be used to describe traffic safety. The paper provides an assessment of traffic safety conditions for rural roads in Egypt. This is done through a three-step procedure. First, deaths per million vehicle kilometers are obtained and compared for Egypt, three other Arab countries and six of the G-7 countries. Egypt stands as having a significantly high rate of deaths per 100 million vehicle kilometers. This is followed by compiling available traffic and accident data for five main rural roads in Egypt over a 10-year period (1990–1999). These are used to compute and compare 13 traffic safety indicators for these roads. The third step for assessing traffic safety for rural roads in Egypt is concerned with presenting a detailed analysis of accident causes. The paper moves on to develop a number of statistical models that can be used in the prediction of the expected number of accidents, injuries, fatalities and casualties on the rural roads in Egypt. Time series data of traffic and accidents, over a 10 years period for the considered roads, is utilized in the calibration of these predictive models. Several functional forms are explored and tested in the calibration process. Before proceeding to the development of these models three ANOVA statistical tests are conducted to establish whether there are any significant differences in the data used for models’ calibration as a result of differences among the considered five roads.
2 – Abbas K. A. & Al Hossieny A. (2004) In-depth Statistical Analyses of Accident Databases. Part 2: A Case Study. Advances in Transportation Studies: An International Journal, Vol. 1 (4), Section A, pp. 57-67. University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
3 – Abbas K. A. & Al Hossieny A. (2001) A Generic Approach for In-Depth Statistical Investigation of Accident Characteristics and Causes. In 12th International Conference on Traffic Safety in Three Continents – Session 10: Data and Models Organised by VTI, TRB, CSIR, FERSI, HNNAT and held in Moscow. pp. 1-13. Published by Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute VTI, Sweden.
Abstract:
The main aim of this research is to develop a generic approach for the utilization of statistical methods to conduct basic as well as in-depth investigation of accident databases. This is meant to obtain accident characteristics as well as to isolate accident causes and hence assist in the selection of specific appropriate traffic safety countermeasures. The paper presents a full description of the developed approach. The applicability of the approach is demonstrated by analyzing an accident database. In this context, the paper presents and discusses the results and conclusions of the in-depth statistical analysis of accidents and establishes, in statistical terms, the specific characteristics and causes for such accidents. Such focused conclusions are used to suggest some specific safety countermeasures.
